Anisimova Overcomes Tagger in Three Sets: Victory Reveals Concentration Lapses Amid 1,300-Point Defense Pressure

Flushing Meadows, New York – When Amanda Anisimova stepped onto the Grandstand court on Wednesday afternoon, she carried an invisible number heavier than any forehand: 1,300 points to defend from her 2026 US Open runner-up finish. Her second-round match against 18-year-old Austrian Joelie Tagger – a player making her Grand Slam main-draw debut – was expected to be a gentle warm-up. But tennis never accepts perfect scripts. Anisimova won 6-3, 3-6, 6-1, and this victory both confirmed her class on hard courts and exposed a psychological crack that bigger opponents will exploit. When I reviewed the match statistics, one number stood out immediately: Anisimova hit 30 winners – double Tagger's 15 – but the unforced error count was equal. This was not a match where Anisimova dominated through power; this was a match she won through shot-making at decisive moments. She converted 5 break points versus 3 for her opponent, and in the fourth game of the deciding set, she needed her seventh break point of that game to establish a 4-0 lead. That says: even when playing her best, Anisimova makes spectators hold their breath. Anisimova's tactics in the first set were a classic template of aggressive baseline play. She served well, then unleashed first strikes off both wings to steal time from her opponent. As I have observed in many of her matches this season, when her first-serve percentage stays above 65%, she is nearly unbeatable from the baseline. The first set ended 6-3, and everything seemed to follow the script. But the second set witnessed a collapse in concentration, not tactics. At 2-1, Anisimova double-faulted – a rare mistake for a player with her serve – and handed the break to Tagger. From there, Tagger won four of the next five games. When I reviewed the set's trajectory, I recognized a familiar pattern: Anisimova tends to ease off after winning the first set against lower-ranked opponents. Her unforced errors spiked, and she began hitting overly safe shots, allowing Tagger into the match. Tagger, despite losing, showed why she is considered one of Austria's most promising young talents since Dominic Thiem. The 2026 Roland Garros junior champion, who won her first WTA title in Prague and cracked the Top 50 in July, showed no fear against her first Top-10 opponent. She returned deeper in the second set, extending rallies to neutralize Anisimova's first-strike advantage. But it wasn't enough. When Anisimova re-applied her attacking template in the third set, Tagger had no Plan C. What concerns me more than the victory is the points context weighing on Anisimova's shoulders. As the 2026 US Open runner-up, she is defending 1,300 points. If she exits in the third round, she would lose approximately 1,100 points, almost certainly dropping out of the Top 10. This is a points-defense cliff that any player must face, but for Anisimova – who returned from a mental-health break in 2026 – the pressure is even greater. She is not just fighting for a match; she is fighting for her place among the elite. Her season numbers support confidence: 22-11 overall, 17-5 on hard courts (77.3%), with semifinal runs in Dubai, quarterfinals at the Australian Open and Cincinnati. This is not a ranking inflated by favorable draws; this is a player with genuine class on her preferred surface. But precisely because of that, the third-round match against No. 24 seed Anastasia Potapova becomes the tournament's first real test. Potapova is not Tagger – she is an experienced player who hits flat and hard, and she will not be intimidated by Anisimova. If Anisimova has another second-set lapse like the one against Tagger, she could pay with her tournament. From a data perspective, the correlation between Anisimova's winners and unforced errors is a double-edged sword. She wins because she finishes better, but she also makes as many errors as an 18-year-old newcomer. This creates an inherent volatility in her game – one day she can win a third set 6-1, another day she can lose a second set 3-6. Against elite defenders like Swiatek, this volatility could become her ceiling. One interesting detail I noted from this match: Anisimova being placed on Grandstand – the tournament's third-largest show court – signals that organizers view her as a marquee attraction. This makes sense given her American nationality and last year's final run. But it also creates an invisible pressure: the home crowd expects a deep campaign. With home-court advantage, she can channel that support to push through difficult moments. But if she lets those lapses repeat, the support can quickly turn to skepticism. In a short-format tournament like a Grand Slam, I always remember the lesson from World Cup 2026: correct data but wrong questions can lead to wrong conclusions. Anisimova has an impressive hard-court win rate, but that doesn't automatically carry her deep. The right question is: can she maintain focus through every set, every game, against increasingly difficult opponents? And is defending 1,300 points quietly eroding the freedom in her game? The lesson from this match is not just in Anisimova's victory, but in how she handled the pressure. She won a match she should have won more easily. She let a young opponent drag her into difficulty before regaining her rhythm. These are not signs of a champion at peak form – they are signs of a player struggling with her own expectations. Looking ahead, the match against Potapova will tell us more than any statistic. Potapova is a genuine test of class, and it will reveal whether Anisimova can survive this points cliff. I will be watching one specific metric: her first-serve percentage in the opening set. If she starts with high intensity, that's a good sign. If not, we may witness an early, regrettable exit for one of America's most beloved players at this year's tournament. The win over Tagger was a necessary step, but it was not a statement. It was more like a reminder that even the best players can be vulnerable. The question is not whether Anisimova can beat Potapova – it's whether she can beat her own lack of focus before her opponent does it for her.